Identifying "winning" countries and states
- Jeffrey Morris
- May 8, 2020
- 1 min read
Endcoronavirus.org has some interesting, simple graphics that show the shape of the incidence curve by country or state, and classifies each as "winning", "nearly there", or "need action" as well as some basic common sense description of what works and what doesn't.
This does not account for factors like population, density, or climate to show its effect on these curves, but I think they are quite interesting and useful.
I also agree with the suggestions on the page and suggestion that in many populations a 5-7 week intense response can control the virus, even though that is harder in some places than others.
The key question is what to do if the lockdowns have not brought the curve all the way down? Should they continue indefinitely, or should other strategies be used that might not be as strong but are more sustainable.
I think based on what we've learned, the mask wearing is an underrated aspect of our response. If followed broadly, it really will control local spread of the virus, and it is cheap and easy to implement. I hope the can catch on in more of the USA -- if it does then we can open up a lot of things and still control the spread -- if it doesn't, then I'm afraid we are not going to manage this well.
What can we do to get this message to people and to get them to comply?
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This is a clear and intuitive way to compare regions at a glance. I appreciate the acknowledgment that population density and climate could shift the picture—those factors would definitely add more nuance, but this is a very useful starting point.
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