Texas A&M talk: Quantitative issues causing confusion for both skeptics and leaders in the pandemic
Last Friday gave a covid webinar at Texas A&M discussing various issues in the pandemic in which quantitative nuances have confused people, sometimes the pandemic skeptics, and sometimes the national leaders and media, including:
* Length of lockdowns
* Deniers vs. alarmists, vaccine enthusiasts vs. skeptics
* Vaccine efficacy vs. infection/transmission
* Vaccine safety
* Immunity after infection
* Age and Time confounding in the pandemic and Simpson's paradox
* Variants
* Censoring/fact-checking
* The role of statisticians and other biomedical data scientists in the pandemic
Here is the video:
The inclusion of age and time confounding is a useful reminder to check how groups are defined before interpreting a chart. Clear labels for what is known versus estimated matter outside statistics too; I try to apply that distinction in my Leonida region guide.
Talking through the quantitative confusions that muddled public debate is more valuable than re-litigating conclusions, and the piece keeps the technical points accessible. Linking the slide deck would help readers check the numbers. Reference to Video can turn the talk into a short clip from a reference image and audio.
This is such an important topic — the way numbers get twisted or misunderstood during a crisis can really shape public trust, and you're right that both sides have fallen into those traps. The Simpson's paradox point especially stood out to me because it's such a subtle thing that even smart people miss when looking at aggregate data. Speaking of mind-bending perspectives, it reminds me of how monumentvalley 3 online plays with optical illusions and shifting viewpoints — sometimes you have to change your entire frame of reference to see what's actually there. Appreciate you breaking this down in a way that's accessible for the rest of us.
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