German antibody study finds that number infected about 10x the number of confirmed cases
- Jeffrey Morris
- May 4, 2020
- 1 min read
using blood antibody tests of a random sample of residents in a German town estimated that the true case rate is about 10x the number of confirmed cases, a ratio that has appeared repeatedly in other similar antibody studies.
This is not peer reviewed yet, and the details are not published, but the fact that it is a "random sample" is promising that it might be representative for that region, although this region studied had some of the highest death rates in Germany so may not be representative of the rest of the country.
Seeing this type of number again and again, I strongly suspect the ratio of actual cases to confirmed cases is 10:1 or more most places, and this needs to be taken into account in planning and modeling.
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