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What have we learned about COVID-19, and what can we expect? The statistics that matter.

Here is a video of a presentation I have for the Business Institute for my undergraduate university Messiah University, a liberal arts university in central Pennsylvania.

I speak for about 35 minutes, discussing the origination and motivation of my blog, removing political bias and finding middle ground between denial and alarmism and then mentioning some of the key knowledge I think we have gained about the virus, how it spreads and key mitigation strategies, and then finally concluding by looking ahead to what we can expect in the fall and winter and how we should deal with the continuing challenge of this pandemic.

  • The early efforts to help people understand how serious the virus was

  • Followed by arguing against arguments for long-term lockdowns, instead conveying a need to find a middle ground of targeted mitigation strategies to reduce spread.

  • Conveying what I view as the two ends of the continuum, denial and alarmism, and the importance of mutual respect and finding the middle ground.

  • What we've learned about how it spreads, and what this means about key precautions we all need to take to prevent spread.

  • A primer on the mathematics of infectious disease spread & why it is crucial to slow spread

  • Looking ahead, I give numerous reasons for pessimism -- why we are concerned the fall and winter may be worse, ...

  • followed by some reasons for optimism, why the fall and winter may not be as bad as anticipated,

  • and then concluding by what I think will happen, and recommendations on how we can adjust our mindset to deal with the challenges posed by this crisis.

This is followed by about 20 minutes of Q+A, which includes

  • What do you think would have happened in society if we publicized and researched the flu to the degree to which we have Covid-19?

  • How do you chat with family if you are in the denial or alarmist side?

  • Why are people of color more susceptible to Covid-19?

  • What do you think of Pennsylvania's response, and what state do you think has done best?

  • What about recommendations for putting masks on between bites of food at a restaurant?

  • Will there be a second wave of COVID-19 coming at the end of fall/early winter?

  • Since there is so much variance in the virus between climate regions, does it makes sense to have a uniform national response?

  • What role do our national leaders need to serve in communication?

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